Trio of storms lined up to soak Bay Area next week

As many as three storms could drop rain on the Bay Area next week with the potential for heavy rain later in the week, according to the National Weather Service.

The first storm is expected to be light and arrive Saturday or Sunday, producing upwards of a tenth of an inch of rain in the North Bay and lesser amounts in other parts of the Bay Area.

Some places may see no rain at all, weather service officials said.

A second, stronger storm is forecast to arrive Monday evening with rain lingering into Tuesday and as late as Wednesday. Light rain is also expected with the second storm.

What little rain does fall may only saturate the region’s soils ahead of a stronger third system that may come, according to the weather service.

That system could bring moderate to heavy rain, but the chance of rain falling in the Bay Area is only 30 or 40 percent now, National Weather Service meteorologist Matt Mehle said.

“If it slides south, we might not get much of anything,” Mehle said.

Meteorologists will know more as it gets closer to the end of next week.

The potential for rain has hydrologists at the Anderson Reservoir near Morgan Hill watching weather forecasts closely because last month, water from the reservoir flooded Coyote Creek and several San Jose neighborhoods.

According to city officials, the flood caused millions of dollars in damage.

Gina Adriano, spokeswoman with the Santa Clara Valley Water District, which manages the Anderson Reservoir, said the reservoir’s outlet is fully open to make room for more rain.

The reservoir is at 89 percent capacity and will drop by 1 percent per day when the outlet is fully open, Adriano said.

If a third storm does affect the Bay Area, the storm will be weaker than the strongest of this winter’s storms, Mehle said.

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center are forecasting higher than average precipitation for all of California through the end of March.

Mehle said the rainy season in the Bay Area typically ends in late April or the beginning of May.