This offseason might have been one of the most tumultuous one’s of any for fantasy purposes. And nobody benefits more than Andrew Luck.
The reasons are pretty straightforward: The Colts added Frank Gore, and while Luck doesn’t benefit in the passing game there directly, Gore should lend to success with play action.
Luck completed fewer than 60 percent of play action passes in 2014, one of the worst percentages in the league, and was fourth worst in the league. Indianapolis didn’t have a true a-gap runner that was used as such, and it’s easy to imagine Gore being a major plus in the area.
“Boom” Herron is in line for looks in the running game also, and the Colts can finally run power.
But perhaps the biggest helper Luck received this offseason is Phillip Dorsett; a pure burner who should pair with T.Y. Hilton as the most dangerous deep threat duo in the NFL. The Colts go deep a lot, more than any other team in the league last season.
One in nearly six plays were pass attempts of more than 20 yards, but Hilton was the only receiver quick and polished enough to give Luck the advantage on such plays. No more.
I expect Luck to throw for over 2,000 yards this season, on deep passes alone. I also expect his 47.7 completion percentage to increase to near his 59 percent clip when running play action.
That’s just over a 10 percent jump, which should nearly close the gap in receiving yards with last year’s corps, and the 153 remaining yards should make it happen with six more completions. Which is totally reasonable with sustained success.
The other signal callers in my top five either got some more help this offseason in their receiving corps, save for Tony Romo, who gets a boost with an improved offensive line and the departure of DeMarco Murray.
Roethlisberger, I expect, will continue to post monster numbers, but sustaining his 2014 clip will be tough to do, especially considering his 2014 season was by far the best he’ ever had. And at 33 years old, continuing that will be tough, regardless of his supporting group.
There’s still some major parity one through five, but considering that Luck will likely be around the fifth quarterback drafted, there’s no excuse not to take him. Even if your league mates consider it an overdraft. He’s first overall potential with third or fourth round value.